Archive for ◊ July, 2008 ◊

Author: Tad Salyards
• Sunday, July 27th, 2008

As the Minnesota Twins enter the second half of their 2008 season, a season that was supposed to be a “rebuilding” year, they have again demonstrated they are one of the leanest, meanest, well-run organizations in professional baseball.

As of the writing of this article the Twins were 3.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox in the American League Central Division. I spend a fair amount of time in Chicago and I can tell you that Sox fans have a mortal fear of the Twins. Sox fans’ fears are well founded. I predict that the Twins will knock the Sox off of their division-leading pedestal by the end of the 08 campaign, winning the Central Division and going to the playoffs in October.

The season began with the Twins dealing superstar Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez and three other Mets players. Meanwhile, the Twins incredible farm system has relied on a host of young “no name” players to join the likes of Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer for the 08 campaign. I don’t know of any major league organization that has a farm system that can top that of the Minnesota Twins. I mean, where else would you get guys like Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Alexi Casilla, Denard Span and Delmon Young?

To a large extent, small market teams like the Twins, Kansas City, and Cleveland are “feeder” teams for the large market teams (Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers). Once a young player from a small market team like Johan Santana or David Ortiz gets to free agency, they are handsomely paid by a large market team, leaving the small market team to start over with young talent. It is common for fans from small market teams like the Twins to complain that their best players (Morneau, Mauer) will eventually end up playing for teams like the Yankees. But the large market teams have their own issues.

Take the Chicago Cubs, for example. The Cubs can afford to buy the best talent from small market teams, but these “marquis” players are overpaid and often spoiled. For example, if Alfonso Soriano of the Cubs was playing for the Twins, manager Ron Gardenhire would bench him for not hustling on the bases. Lou Piniella will “baby” Soriano; after all, how are you going to tell a guy that’s making $136 million dollars over eight years that he’s a loafer? You can’t bench a guy that makes that kind of money!

As a result, when you contrast the Twins’ style of play with the Cubs, there is a lot more hustle in the Metrodome that you’ll ever find on Chicago’s north side. The other day I was watching the Twins and saw Gomez bunt himself on base, only to be followed by a bunt single by the next batter (I think it was Casilla). Casilla had to slide head first to avoid the tag on his bunt single. To Twins fans such plays are much appreciated but not surprising. If two Cubs players accomplished back to back bunt singles with that kind of hustle at Wrigley Field, the fans would go wild and the play would be on Sports Center the next morning. Meanwhile, Justin Morneau wins the Home Run Derby and scores the winning run during All-Star game and is hardly mentioned in the press.

As a fan of both the Twins and Cubs, I have learned to respect the Twins and love the Cubs (mostly because of their history and venue). If I had to pick the baseball organization delivers the most “bang” for the “buck” in the major leagues, the Twins would win hands down and the Cubs wouldn’t even be in the top ten. In my opinion, the Twins organization deserves more fan attendance and loyalty than they presently receive. The Cubs, on the other hand, get far more fan attendance and loyalty than they deserve.

Of course, if I had to pick a place to spend a sunny Saturday afternoon watching major league baseball, it would be baseball’s Cathedral, my beloved Wrigley Field. The runner up, of course, would be Boston’s venerable Fenway Park. Unfortunately, after this year the “house that Ruth built” will be no more. May I not live long enough to see Wrigley or Fenway suffer the same fate.

Author: Tad Salyards
• Sunday, July 20th, 2008

Some in the U.S. Congress, including Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, have blamed speculators for the high price of oil. Of course…speculators! This is a politicians dream! What a convenient scapegoat! Let’s castigate people that buy and sell futures contracts, an activity that is unfamiliar to the average taxpayer, and blame these speculators for high oil prices! Let’s tell the public that if it wasn’t for speculators, gasoline prices would be a dollar lower at the pump! Let’s tell them that speculators, not supply and demand, are the main reason for high oil prices!

In this article I’m going to explain why speculators are not the reason for high oil prices, but, with the proper government policies, could actually assist US consumers by driving prices down!

The word “speculator” sounds evil! It conjures up images of someone who does no productive work, but makes millions of dollars sucking the blood from ordinary, hard working citizens that are struggling at the gas pump! As is usually the case when politicians jump on the bandwagon to discredit any group of people, the criticism is misleading hogwash. Let me tell you why.

Investors, including hedge funds, professional commodities traders, and yes, even the folks that invest money for you in your retirement portfolio, are charged with getting a decent return the investments of their clients. Lately, stock market prices have not been a very good investment, so the stewards of financial capital have decided to invest in commodities (grains, steel, oil, platinum), which have been rising in price. These commodities have gone up in price mostly because global demand (Chindia) for these items is growing faster than our ability to supply them.

Those who speculate in commodities prices serve a very noble purpose; they even out the allocation of resources over time. For example, if I believe that crude oil is going to rise significantly from its present $140 a barrel price, I would be wise to buy a contract to sell 1,000,000 barrels of crude a year later, at whatever the market price is on that date. If I’ve guessed right, and the price of crude is $160 a year later, I will receive $160,000 for the crude that I paid only $1,400,000 for a year earlier. Even though I never actually purchased the oil or took delivery on the oil, I have made $200,000 with my futures trade. There are no guarantees. If a year later the price of crude is $120 a barrel, I will receive only $1,200,000 for oil that I purchased for $1,400,000. I’m going to have to sell the contract for $1,200,000 and throw in an additional $200,000 of my own money, which is for me, a real loss. Remember; for every speculator that makes money, there is another who loses money!

Here’s the point; futures market traders “guess” about future prices and make their bets accordingly. In the case of oil, guessing that the price will be higher in the future will raise the price of oil now, reducing current consumption and saving more oil for tomorrow’s consumption. In this way, traders help allocate world resources more wisely.

People are looking for a scapegoat when they get nailed $60 - $100 to fill up their tanks; that’s understandable. However, when people fly Southwest Airlines I don’t see anyone complaining about their lower fares. Speculators working for Southwest Airlines bought futures contracts years ago to take delivery of jet fuel at prices much lower than today’s market prices. As a result, Southwest is buying fuel cheaper and passing the savings on to customers. Funny, I don’t see congress berating speculators at Southwest!

If the congress passed laws today opening up offshore drilling, formalizing plans to drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and reducing disincentives to build hundreds of nuclear power plants, it would take 10 or more years before that additional energy would hit the market. But speculators would realize that prices of energy will be lower 10 years from now and futures prices would immediately fall. As economist Walter Williams says, “Put yourself in the place of an OPEC member knowing there would be a greater supply of U.S. oil five or 10 years, hence maybe driving oil prices lower to say $40 a barrel. What will you want to do now while oil is $130 a barrel? You would want to sell as much oil now and OPEC’s collective efforts to do so would put downward pressures on current oil prices.”

As Williams suggests, Congress is OPEC’s biggest ally. Congress can actually provide some pump price relief for beleaguered Americans, if only it will convince everyone else in the world that we are prepared, determined, and acting to produce more energy in the future!

Author: Tad Salyards
• Sunday, July 13th, 2008

Jesse Jackson, during a break while taping “Fox & Friends” last Sunday, thought the microphone was off when he whispered to Reed Tuckson of the United Healthcare Group that Barak Obama was “talking down to black people”. Jackson also said, while referring to Obama, “I wanna cut his nuts off.”

Oh, Jesse, now you’ve done it! Your era of preaching victimization and blaming everyone and everything but black folks for the virtual ruination of the black culture and family over the past 50 years is coming to an end. How dare Barak Obama should tell black men that manhood means more than getting a girl pregnant. How dare Barak Obama gives speeches imploring black parents to become involved in the schools where their children attend and to make sure their kids do their homework and achieve academically. How dare that Barak Obama, during a press conference, had the audacity to tell an unemployed black man that he would probably have a job if he upgraded his education and skills!

During his formal apology for his “Nuts” remark, Jesse Jackson said, “My support for Senator Obama’s campaign is wide, deep and unequivocal.” I’m sure that Barak is overwhelmed by your sincerity, Jesse. After all, it’s normal to want to cut off the testicles of those you admire! The bottom line is this, Jesse. You’re hacked off that Obama has succeeded in Presidential politics where you have failed. You’re also upset that Obama is rejecting your long-held strategy of telling black people that they are victims and blameless for their cultural demise.

No one who truly wants black Americans to be successful is buying your ruse any more, Mr. Jackson. Bill Cosby isn’t buying it. Award winning journalist and NPR correspondent Juan Williams wrote an entire book to debunk your foolishness: “Enough: The Phony Leaders, Dead-End Movements, and Culture of Failure That are Undermining Black America and What We Can Do about it” And what may be even more important, Barak Obama isn’t buying it.

In 1951 Oliver Brown, a skilled welder in the shops of the Santa Fe Railroad, had the guts to stand up for his daughter, a third grade student in Topeka, Kansas. She had to take a long bus ride to a segregated black school, when a white school was only seven blocks away. The result of Mr. Brown’s courage was a landmark Supreme Court Decision that virtually desegregated all public schools in America (Brown vs. Board of Education, 1954).

Jesse, you don’t even deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence with a man like Oliver Brown. Where once black children like Oliver’s daughter Linda were taught to strive for good grades, fifty years later black children in Jesse Jackson’s America are called “uncle Toms” if they attempt to succeed academically in the public schools. Most children cave under the pressure and give up on their academic dreams. The result is a black community where kids don’t give a damn about the education that Oliver Brown worked so hard to secure. Oliver Brown, rest his blessed soul, must be turning over in his grave when he sees what the likes of Jesse Jackson have created.

Jesse, you’ve long been disrespected in the business community, where you’ve extorted millions from corporations using the “race” card. You’ve gotten rich beyond your dreams doing so. But now your game is over because you have lost your respect in the black community that you’ve betrayed for decades. Barak Obama has your number, Jesse. Your game is over.

Author: Tad Salyards
• Sunday, July 06th, 2008

Happy Independence Day! This week John Warner, the influential republican senator from Virginia, floated out a trial balloon of sorts. The idea is for Congress to impose a national speed limit (probably 55-60 mph) to save gas and lives. This is a horrible idea.

There is no question that gasoline would be saved if we all drove 55 mph. Warner cited studies indicating that over 150,000 barrels of oil a day could be saved, which amounts to about 2% of highway fuel consumption. Of course, with slower speeds, lives would also be saved, perhaps 4,000 of the 43,000 lives that are now lost on the nation’s highways.

I’m not refuting the “benefits” of a low speed limit; there would unquestionably be a savings of gasoline and lives. However, with increased world demand, a mere 2% reduction in supply wouldn’t reduce prices at the pumps. What Warner and those who support a lower limit are forgetting are the “costs” of a lower speed limit.

Warner wants to explore the benefits of a lower speed limit without looking at the costs! Politicians are experts at ignoring costs. The costs of a lower speed limit are substantial, even oppressive. Time is money. Millions of Americans will spend billions of additional hours in their cars; time that could have been spent in more productive pursuits. The cost to the trucking industry will be far greater than the diesel consumption savings. The slower limit will cause truckers to run short of their destinations in the allotted regulated driving time. In fact, the enactment of the lower limit might end up putting more trucks on the road to make sure shipments arrive on time. Businesses will have to stock more inventory because of less timely truck deliveries.

From a societal perspective, a national speed limit leads to a huge efficiency loss. Rather than letting each consumer or business owner determine whether the additional gasoline costs are worth value of the time lost at the margin, the lower limits assume everyone is in the same boat. We’re not in the same boat. If you’re a traveling salesman and the lower limit costs you one hour a day in driving time, making it impossible for you to call on one additional client a day, the $10 worth of gasoline you save might pale in comparison to the $25,000 additional sales revenue you could have generated that week on five more sales calls. On the other hand, if you’re a retired couple on a vacation you might drive 55 mph anyway and use the $10 savings to buy a couple of hamburgers for dinner!

From 1974 to 1995 Congress imposed a national 55 mph speed limit. I’m old enough to know what 55 mph feels like when you’re behind the wheel trying to get somewhere and get something done. Frankly, it’s hell! A mandatory slower speed limit is a “time” tax, wasting your time (and that of hundreds of millions of Americans) while we drive in cars and on roads that were designed for 75 mph.

Warner and his cronies in congress have caused the price of energy to rise due to their excessive regulations that have kept the nuclear, coal, and oil industries from expanding in the United States. Now they want to further burden us to pay for their mistakes by forcing us to waste our time driving 55 mph.

If you’ve never had to experience what 55 mph feels like, get out on the interstate and set your cruise control on 55 for 10 minutes. That short 10 minute trip will convince you to write a letter to your representatives in Washington. The 70’s were a crappy decade; bad music, bad fashion, and a bad mandatory speed limit. This is one 70’s mistake we don’t want to repeat!